ACA Subsidies Face Expiration
On December 17, House Republicans narrowly passed a conservative health care bill that excludes any extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits, making it likely these subsidies will expire on December 31. Leading up to the vote, a group of moderate Republicans had pushed House leaders to instead allow a vote on a simple extension bill, including 4 Republicans joining Democrats in a procedural move to force a vote on such legislation.
What's Next?
Centrist Republicans and Democrats are now pursuing a bipartisan path forward, including a proposal from Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick to renew subsidies for two years with income-based caps. While the House bill is expected to stall in the Senate, advocates hope for action before the next government funding deadline on January 30th. The KFF estimates premium payments will increase by an average of $1,016 next year if Congress allows the enhanced tax credits to expire, which will lead to coverage losses, raise uncompensated care risks, and add financial strain for providers serving impacted populations.
Fiscal Year 2026 Appropriations
The current continuing resolution (CR) funding the federal government expires January 30, raising the risk of a partial government shutdown if Congress doesn’t pass the remaining spending bills or another CR. So far, three appropriations bills (Agriculture, Legislative Branch, and Military Construction) have been passed as part of the current CR, ensuring on-going funding for those agencies. This week, Senate Republican leaders secured enough support to put together a five-bill “minibus” covering Labor-HHS-Education, Defense, Transportation-HUD, Commerce-Justice-Science, and Interior-Environment .
What’s Next?
While there were intensive negotiations throughout the week which resulted in agreement on a list of amendments that will be allowed during floor consideration, ultimately, leaders were unable to overcome some Senators’ objections to provisions of the minibus. (One of the amendments which will be offered would extend all existing homelessness Continuum of Care and Youth Homelessness Demonstration Program grants for 12 months through non-competitive renewals.) Late Thursday night, the Senate adjourned until January 5th without having been able to take a vote on the package.
Assuming the Senate is able to pass the minibus when they return from the holidays, the House will still need to take up and pass the bill. If the minibus bill does become law, five other appropriations bills will still be unfinished. As a result, any government shutdown after January 30 would only be partial—but still disruptive.
What’s Ahead in January?
Our Next “Capitol Conversations” Webinar
Plan to join us for our next webinar scheduled for Thursday, January 15, 2026, from 1-2 PM ET. We will be offering an outlook for Congressional and Administration activity for the upcoming year. Please note: we are using a new registration link for 2026--all prior and new attendees will need to register using the link below.
