Senate Unveils "Skinny" Budget Reconciliation 2.0 Blueprint
Today, Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R‑SC) formally kicked off the second phase of Republicans’ reconciliation strategy—designed as a three-part effort—by releasing a narrow budget resolution. The resolution is designed to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and other immigration enforcement activities at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The aim is to break the ongoing partial shutdown at DHS by bypassing the Senate filibuster. Republicans plan to move as quickly as possible to deliver the bill to the President by his self-imposed June 1 deadline.
Narrow Approach on Immigration and Border Enforcement
As Republicans have been signaling recently, the resolution gives reconciliation instructions only to the panels with jurisdiction over immigration and border enforcement policy including the Senate Judiciary Committee and the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, and the House Homeland Security Committee and the House Judiciary Committee. Under the blueprint, these committees are directed to produce legislation by May 15. The package could provide up to roughly $140 billion total in immigration enforcement funding, which Republican leaders say would sustain ICE, Border Patrol, and related activities for several years.
Broader Implications?
At this time, no instructions are included in the budget resolution for committees overseeing Medicaid, including Senate Finance and House Energy and Commerce. Because reconciliation bills may only include provisions within the jurisdiction of committees named in the instructions, at present we do not expect Medicaid provisions to be included in this bill.
Outlook for Medicaid
As Republican leaders continue to signal interest in a larger, third reconciliation bill later this year, which could include defense spending, the war in Iran, tax policy, or broader deficit reduction goals, threats to Medicaid are still looming. As outside analysts and Congressional aides have noted, any future reconciliation package that includes instructions to committees with Medicaid jurisdiction could once again put “fraud prevention” policies, eligibility restrictions, or financing changes back on the table.
Now What?
For now, the immediate focus is on whether Senate Republicans can keep this second reconciliation bill narrow enough to move quickly—and whether House leaders will proceed with reopening the rest of DHS once the process is underway. Senate Republicans are aiming to adopt the budget resolution this week. Senate Majority Leader John Thune can lose only as many as three GOP members so long as Vice President JD Vance is available to break ties.
We will continue to monitor developments closely, including potential future cuts to Medicaid in a third reconciliation bill.